The Covid 19 crisis in India is a colossal disaster. India's Covid-19 tally has crossed 45 lakh. Let's discuss the top ten miscalculations that made people struggle between corona and poverty.
Introduction
India is being a country of 1.3 billion citizens and with the economic status of developing country, the communicable disease like Covid 19 is really a challenging issue. The initiation taken by the Indian Government to contain the spread of Covid 19, with the implementation of “Janata Curfew “ on 22nd Mar and then lockdown from 25th Mar to 3rd May, had filled the heart of every Indian, with a hope to combat Covid 19. But with the rapid increase in Coronavirus disease in the country and the cry of daily wage labourers due to lack of proper settlement plan for them has let down the trust of every Indian. The strategy enforced in Lockdown 4.0, 3.0 and the mismanagement in previous lockdown has shaken the faith of commoner, whether to fight Covid 19 or Poverty! Now question arise from each resident whether Government really had a concrete strategic plan to manage “health & economy” amid Covid 19 crisis?
Covid19 Statistics in India:
Up to 15th March, India had 100 confirmed Covid 19 cases with 1 death report.
Then India had imposed the nationwide lockdown on 25th March by looking at the demand of the situation. According to data from the Health Ministry and State governments, on March 25th, India had 618 confirmed cases of COVID-19, of which 562 are active with death toll at 13.
After 40 days lockdown, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India crossed 40,000 on 3rd May, made it one among 16 countries that have crossed that figure and the death toll nationwide had gone up to 1,306.
In Lockdown 3.0 (May 4 – May 17), the Coronavirus cases in India has taken a wide inflation. By the end of the lockdown 3.0, India has already overtaken China in terms of number of people affected by the Coronavirus with the total number of positive cases at 90, 927, including 53,946 active cases, 34,109 cured and the death toll stands at 2,872.
Lockdown 4.0 has come to effect from 18th May which will end on 31st May. There is a huge escalation in Covid19 cases in the first week of lockdown 4.0 (18th May- 23rd May).The number of Coronavirus cases has gone up by 30 percent. According to Worldometer, the number of confirmed Covid 19 cases in India on 18th May was 96,169 with 3,029 deaths and the cases hiked to 1,27,358 with 3,759 deaths on 23rd May. Today India has 45,68,770 confirmed Covid 19 cases with death toll stands at 76,348 and 35,44,794 patients have been recovered.
Now, in India, everyday 75,000 to 90,000, new Covid19 cases, are being reported and around 900 to 1000 people, are dying each day from Covid19. Although India reported its first case on 30th January , around 74% of India's total cases have been reported in May alone. At present, India ranked number 4th position, among the Top 10 Covid19 affected countries. (Source: Worldometers). India may also see the hike in more number of Coronavirus cases in the month of June and July.
So now let’s discuss the “Top 10 misapplication done by the Indian Government in managing the Covid19 Crisis.”
1. Failed to Check The Coronavirus Disease At the Very Early Stage:
Covid19 is a transmissible disease, which hit very hard in China: America and European countries before taking entry into India. India is being home to 1.3 billion citizens, the most critical trial for the administration had to check the Covid19, right from the International border. But here the administration failed to imagine the impact of Coronavirus disease if it once enters the India border. By looking at the critical situation in other countries, Indian Government should have taken the prior decision of cancelling the International flight at the very early point.
If the Government could not cancel the International flight then would have been arranged firm quarantine campus for all overseas passengers. But when these passengers were left for their home with simple screening at airport terminal, at that time Government put 1.3 billion people life in great danger. Many of the International travelers avoided self quarantine and hide their travel history to the Administration. They moved seamlessly in public places, attended parties and social function which spread Coronavirus disease throughout the Country.
Government finally imposed a ban on most foreigners from entering the country on Mar 16 to contain the spread of Covid-19. But by that time already the highly communicable disease has diffused all over the country.
2. Unplanned Lockdown:
Government had lately realized the outcome of Covid19 which is going to affect the entire nation. Then Government imposed nationwide lockdown from 25th Mar to 3rd May. Though lockdown has saved many lives, but in such a huge population, suddenly closing of all the operation has widely affected the economy, daily wage labourers, employment and Agriculture and MSME sectors.
Economy: Lockdown in countries like India and Indonesia are more disastrous for human welfare and economies since there is no help for small business nor are there unemployment benefits, said Christopher Wood. He also said in countries such as India, with young demographics such a lockdown causes more human suffering that Covid19 itself. He was also concerned about the continuing weakness in the rupee amid negative consequences of lower remittances from the Middle East as negative consequences of fall in crude oil prices. A Barclays research estimates India's loss of economic activity could be as high as $234 billion in the lockdown period, resulting in zero per cent GDP growth this fiscal. Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA), however, expects GDP to shrink by 1% in FY21.
Unemployment: Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE) has estimated India’s unemployment rate at 29.4 percent in rural areas and at 25 percent in urban areas for the week ended April 26 as lack of movement of manpower and goods froze the economy. Manufacturing and construction, the biggest employers among industries, are the most vulnerable for job losses, followed by accommodation and food services, as the lockdown to contain the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity, according to Crisil Ratings. The report says industrial workforce is expected to see the highest job cuts where as service sector is likely to witness a medium impact.
Mahesh Vyas, Managing Director and CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), said. "The employment rate has fallen from 40 percent in February to 26 per cent now. This is steep fall of 14 percentage points. This implies that 14 percent of the working age population has lost employment. The working age population is of the order of a billion," Fourteen crore people are expected to have lost employment in the lockdown period, he said.
MSME sector: MSME sector is the backbone of the national economic structure which has been greatly upset by the lockdown. There are over 75 million MSME units in India which provides employment to around 120 million persons and contribute around 45% of the overall exports from India. China plays a very pivotal role for India and its MSME sector as well, this sector is largely dependent on China for its raw material. Thus complete lockdown of China and lockdown of India has led to various issues ranging from shrinkage of exports, cessation of production, non-availability of manpower, the uncertainty of consumption, and liquidity squeeze in the market as well.
Agriculture: The farm economy faced a severe hit when lockdown halted transportation, thereby stagnating the harvest. Further, during the peak harvest, the produce could not reach mandis, thus disrupting the supply chain. Also, the unavailability of migrant labourers, intercepting the harvest and post-harvest operations. The pandemic has given rise to several challenges in procurement operations as well. Due to the unanticipated lockdown many vegetables, fruits, and flowers ruined on the way while transported to other states.
That apart, the sale of dairy products such as milk, egg and fish etc has also faced problems because of various operational restrictions. As a result, the cultivators and related professionals lose their income while some face the wrath of unemployment. Accordingly, small and marginal farmers, landless farm labourers, SMEs dependent on raw materials from agriculture and soon experience extreme challenges. Thus, the government is striving to provide alternative revenue until the economy falls back into its place.
Daily wage labour: Daily wage labour has badly affected by the sudden implementation of lockdown. People those who had savings and earning managed their livelihood and health in the 40 days of lockdown. But there is a huge ratio of people in India, who depends on their daily earning for their livelihood. They don’t have any savings to run their family for the next day. Millions of daily wage labourers came on road when all the work operation closed. They don’t have single work and money to sustain in metro cities for one single day. As all the travel actions had closed at that time they appealed to make some arrangements for their return to home town. For all of them there was one question before coronavirus may the hunger will take their lives. Many labourers walked on the road with their family for 400 to 500 miles in a hope to reach their home. But on the road many labourers and kids died from hunger.
[In a country like India where population is so high, it is really difficult for any administration to plan and execute anything in mass. But Government must figure out pros and cons before implementing anything. The authority must have been necessarily ready with multiple alternative plans for the measurably influenced sectors. But what Indian Government has done it seems that it did not have any strategic plan to handle the problems during lockdown.]
3. Migrant Labour Crisis:
The Migrant labour issue became another catastrophe for the country amid Covi19 crisis. Usually millions of labourers work in metropolitan cities due to the availability of high number opportunities. Industries in metropolitan cities are also proportionality dependent on them as they run many manufacturing, construction and other MSME sectored with the help of these labourers. But it was very unfortunate to see that when lockdown declared and all the travelling operation had ceased at that times many industries thrown out these migrant labourers without any payment.
Government also could not arrange proper food and shelter for these migrant labourers. In the lack of proper food and shelter, these migrant labourers walked miles and miles in a dream to reach their home. They had one slogan, before corona may the hunger will take their life. On road many labourers also died from hunger. It impacted the image of the Government Worldwide with the comment to let poorer people suffer in this Covid19 crisis due to lack of concrete plan.
Mostly in Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka labourers from other state are found in high rate. During the lockdown period, the centre and state could not reach on a fixed assessments plan for settling migrant wage labourers. At the first PM-CM conference, Maharashtra Chief Minister Mr. Uddhav Thackeray had insisted that all migrant labourers in his state should be sent back to their respective states; what he did not spell out was that feeding 5 lakh labourers in city like Mumbai is an expensive proposition.
The migrant labourers issue became big because of the tussle between the host state and the workers’ home states over who should foot the bill. Also, home states found strong resistance from most villages to allowing their own people to enter without being quarantined. Proving that knowledge of corona virus has reached villages as much as it has in the cities. Finally due to the failure of Government in supplying any facilities for migrants in the host state, the centre finally came to the decision for leaving migrants to their home state.
The trouble of migrant workers may not be entirely unique to India, but the mismanagement of the migrant crisis and the treatment of its poorest citizens during the pandemic questioned on the Sovereignty of India. Lockdown would have been really successful in containing the Covid19 if centre with the help of state government would have been arranged proper food and shelter plan for the migrant labourers. If in their own country they were treated in the name of migrant, they are not safe in other state and Government had no proper plan for them, then how far the dream of “One nation” be achieved!
4. Poor Quarantine Center:
Many overseas passengers, doctors and medical staffs complained about the unhygienic condition in quarantine center. Many of them shot videos from inside the quarantine premises which show choked toilets, dirty washrooms and lack of basic amenities. Thousands migrants in overcrowded centers also complain of poor food and sanitation and lack of physical distancing. Some are escaping from the centre.
As per the guidelines for quarantine facilities there must be 1 to 2 meter distance between beds, quarantine centre must be hygienic so that there will be less chance of transmission of the Coronavirus disease.
But, on social media, reports are piling up of unsanitary state-run quarantine facilities in India with multiple people forced to share rooms and dormitories. They are even provided with unhealthy food which is not in the edible condition. It has sparked concerns that the conditions could actually speed up the spread of the virus. The shabby conditions are also making people want to avoid quarantine. There are concerns … this will endanger more lives and lead to panic!!!
5. Interpreting the Covid 19 as a Communal Point during the Lockdown:
The incident of Tablighi Jamaat has spread a communal virus along with the Coronavirus. In the time of national crisis, it is always wiser that the integrity of a country should remain intact. However, if any, internal disturbances will occur in a country, then it will be very difficult to get control over it. There might be any truth behind this situation but in middle of verifying the truth when question raise on any community then there are possible chances of communal riots. And that also happened. Out of communal rage people threw stones on policemen, doctors and medical staffs. Many things can be handled in silence without making any news. Due to high broadcasting network and 4G communication, the hate and anger speeded in the nation amid Covid 19.
6. Many states Hide the exact figure and couldn’t properly follow lockdown.
State wise many incompetencies have been observed. Odisha and Kerala, these two states have played great role to contain Covid19. In both the states, Administration and health department coordinated, hand to hand to check the disease. Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Goa, Pondicherry, Meghalaya and Assam, have also done very well to contain the Coronavirus disease.
In other hand, West Bengal Government had shown the utmost negligence in handling the Coronavirus Disease. Because of improper lockdown and lack of maintenance of social distance, Covid19 accelerated easily in West Bengal. Also the state did not follow the proper procedure to seal the containment zone and hotspots.
The Governor of West Bengal has also raised his concern for Government’s negligence in dealing with the public health and covering the exact number of Coronavirus cases. The centre has also alleged that the state did not cooperate them to investigate properly on Covid19 status. Many doctors have also complained about not equipped them with proper PPE set.
Delhi and UP, Government also failed to an extent in managing the lockdown. Many states have neglected Covid19 testing of migrant labourers. When migrant workers moved to their home state, they are found positive. Odisha which was working superbly to contain Covid19 has also broken recklessly when the migrants returned from other states tested Covid positive. Numerous people who are coming from West Bengal and Surat found positive in Odisha which has become a great worry for the Odisha Government.
7. Messing up the operation between all Red, Orange and Green zone:
In lockdown 3.0, the 733 districts of India had been broadly divided into Red Zones, Orange Zones and Green Zones. The Union Health Ministry had placed 130 districts across the country in the red zone, 284 in orange zone and 319 in green zones.
Metropolitan cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune, Bengaluru, Chennai and Ahmedabad had been designated as red zones in lockdown 3.0. Among the states and UTs which had 10 or more districts in the red zone are Delhi, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
[Green zones are districts which haven’t reported a fresh case in 21 days, down from the 28 days earlier. The orange zones are those with a few cases, and the red ones have a large number of cases.]
The way Government had categorized the whole country into three specific zone i.e. red zone, orange zone and green zone, it was expected that green zones will be operated with the sealed border, so that Green Zone can be kept safe from the transmission possibility from the red zone and orange Zone. And green zones can safely start their financial operation. In orange zone except the hotspot area all other places will start operating. Red and Containment Zone expected to be sealed with minimum essential operation. When all Red, Green and Orange zones were operated at a time then Covid19 cases sharply elevated in the country.
According to state bulletins, the number of cases rose from 34,905 on April 30 to 71,155 on May 12 (an increase of 36,250) in these 644 districts. Of these, while cases almost doubled from 30,479 to 60,020 cases in 114 Red Zone districts, it went up from 4,627 to 9,866 in 258 Orange Zone districts (113 per cent growth).State bulletins, shows that eight out of every 10 patients who tested positive for Covid-19 in this period are from Red Zone districts.
Assam, with green zone areas reporting COVID-19 cases in the last couple of days including Guwahati where 28 positive cases, including a death, had taken place after the centre notified the area as green zone, the Assam government has now informed the centre that it would not like to follow the concept of zones, but would prefer using containment and buffer zones for the area where a positive case has been found and its surrounding areas.
The zone classification was done to impose the kind of restrictions placed on the movement of people and supply of goods in a district. But when labourers were sent from the red zone to green zones without testing, the number of Covid19 cases in green zone also leaped. Specific strategy should have been implemented for red zone in lockdown 3.0. But when red zone operated like green and orange zone, the number of Covid19 cases also surged exponentially.
8. Instant Opening of Liquor Shops:
Opening of liquor shops in all green, orange and red zones is again a failure strategy implemented by the Government. Imposing 40 days lockdown and then suddenly opening the liquor shops smashed the whole 40 days effort of administration and policemen to limit the transmission of Covi19. In Delhi, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh the rush in the liquor shop to purchase liquor was just a laugh to social distance.
India was among a handful of countries, including Thailand and South Africa that had stopped alcohol sales while imposing a nationwide lockdown. On 14 April, WHO’s regional office for Europe called for restrictions on alcohol access during the lockdown. “At times of lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol consumption can exacerbate health vulnerability, risk-taking behaviors, mental health issues and violence," it said in a press note.
As the country completes what is possibly its first dry month, the unavailability of liquor has had two major repercussions: on health (Acute Withdrawal Symptom) and government revenue. But suddenly opening of the liquor shops has delivered negative message to the society. The race in the liquor shops in the red zones has also added many numbers to Covid19 cases in the country.
Right from the beginning of Lockdown, Several states and doctors would prefer a calibrated approach to liquor access rather than a complete ban on sale. In month of April, the International Spirit and Wine Association of India (ISWAI) which represents India’s largest liquor market said 15 to 30% of all state revenue comes from the alcohol sector. Shutting down liquor is self defeating as state government currently need more revenue than ever to fight pandemic, said Deepak Roy, Executive vice chairman of Allied Blender and Distillers (ABD). He said the government must allow normal hours of operation to avoid overcrowding in these times of social distancing.
The Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies (CIABC) had sent its plea to 10 states(Delhi, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal), asking them to allow the sale of alcoholic beverages during the lockdown. Only one states i.e. West Bengal allowed the home delivery of alcohol beverages. Till the lockdown period, liquor will be sold on home delivery basis from shops having valid liquor license and order can be placed between 11am to 2pm.No body can be allowed to come to liquor shops physically, said the West Bengal Government Notification.
9. Revised Discharge policy for Covid19 patients:
The Union health ministry on 8th May revised its discharge guidelines for Covid-19 patients. As per the revised discharge policy the Mild and Moderate patient can be discharged after 10 days of symptom onset and no fever for 3 days. There will be no need for testing prior to discharge. At the time of discharge, the patient will be advised to follow the home isolation for further 7 days as per guidelines available
at(https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/GuidelinesforHomeIsolationofverymildpresymptomaticCOVID19case s.pdf).
Only sever cases including immunocompromised (HIV patients, transplant recipients, malignancy) will have to be tested by RT-PCR after the resolution of their symptoms. But in the earlier advisory a laboratory-confirmed case had to be tested on day 14 once and then again in a span of 24 hours. If both the results are negative then the patient is fit to be discharged from the health care facility.
Now the question arise onset of symptom does not means that the patient is Covid negative as in the case of asymptomatic coronavirus cases. There will be sure chances of transmitting the disease. It clearly indicates that due to growing Covid-19 cases and lack of enough test kits and treatment facility, Government has modified the discharge policy of Covid19 patient. While this will reduce the strain on health facilities, the infectiousness of patients after symptoms subside is uncertain, experts warn. In this way the chances of transmission of the disease will be more and the number of Coronavirus cases will also soar.
An association of doctors in West Bengal has shot off letters to the Union health ministry and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, making a case for a relook at the revised policy for discharge of Coronavirus patients and setting up dedicated critical care units in COVID-19 hospitals of the state.
Noting that different strains of the Coronavirus are prevailing across the country with non-identical morbidity and mortality profile, the Left-backed Association of Health Service Doctors (AHSD) said in its missive to Union health minister Harsh Vardhan that the Centre's discharge guidelines cannot be uniformly exercised everywhere."
As Gujarat, Maharashtra, Delhi is flooded with cases with perceived scarcity of beds and apparatus, and too high bed occupancy rate, the ICMR's recent most discharge protocol and advisory on quarantine stay may be applicable there having no other alternative."But in West Bengal and many other states where geographical spread is not yet established, discharging confirmed cases without.... sampling can't be the choice. Asymptomatic may potentially transmit the virus," the letter, dated May 10, said.
10. Inefficacy of Social Distancing Norms in Lockdown 4.0:
In the lockdown 4.0, which will continue up to 31st May, the centre has moved the responsibility to states to handle both health and economy amid Covid19 crisis. Individual states has implemented different action plans to handle Covid 19. But there was no specific target plan from the administration that how they are going to curb Coronavirus disease whose figure is exponentially rising in the country. And absence of social distancing standards has been observed in the policy applied by the centre and state in travelling services.
Many states operated bus services. But when buses are collecting people from red zone, orange zone and green zone then it is becoming very difficult for states to control the covid19 transmission.
Karnataka Government clarifies that there is no need for pass for inter district travel. Public transport was thrown open in Karnataka on 18th May and over 1,500 Karnataka State Road Transport Corporation (KSRTC) buses commuted in the state transporting people to different districts. There will be no checking of people travelling in these buses, except for thermal screening to check temperature at the start of the journey. Officials are also grappling with the challenge of maintaining physical distancing. However, maintaining physical distancing was a tougher challenge in bus stations. "Communicating the need for physical distancing remains a challenge and we are trying to do this in addition to the other work we have," says Mysuru DC Abhiram Shankar.
Railway services which are expected to maintain social distance in norms of allocating half of the passenger in each compartment also declared that there are no chances of covid19 transmission in railway services by ensuring that railway system replaces air more than 12 times per hour as per these guidelines. But when there is no social distancing in railway coaches, by simply replacing air more than 12 times per hour in AC coaches, how the railway services can control Covid 19 transmission?
Similarly flight services operated from 25th Mar but middle seat will not be vacant then how flight services can combat the Covid19 transmission.
Most important thing, that ministry is ignoring that is the transmittal chances from asymptomatic carriers. With the simple thermal check we can’t detect asymptomatic carriers. But when the asymptomatic persons will travel in air, train and bus without maintaining social distance, how any administration can get control over the rapid communicable disease like Covid 19?
Conclusion:
It can never be said that in a country of 1.3 billion, it would be easy for any Government to get complete hold on such a transmissible disease like “Covid19”. But with a master plan of action and detail analysis of pros and cons, authority could have limit the Covid19 cases. The way Government tightened the hook at the figure of 100 and then finally loosen the hook when the country crossed 1, 00,000 confirmed Covid19 cases, it made every citizen despair. As after the demonetization and GST implementation, the Indian economy was not in a good rail. And upon that Covid19 crisis and unplanned lockdown has devastated the Indian economy. It appears that Government has lost control over both covid 19 and economy due to mismanagement of three major things i.e. daily wage labourers, migrant labourers and economic situation during the lockdown. Now it has left the decision on the 1.3 billion citizens to struggle between corona and poverty. At present the situations became do or die for all countrymen.
Please share it, so that maximum people can be aware.
Very well articulated with covering critical data points
Absolutely right 💯👍